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Some problems have been called wicked problems (or hard problems with some sort of implied capitals, like the Hard Problem of Consciousness), meaning that they are (a) intrinsically difficult, maybe impossible, to solve and (b) people still want very badly to solve them. You can even argue that the wickedest problems are the ones that…
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This is the code for a couple of basic agent models that will demonstrate what is said about the operation of networks. All of them are for use in the NetLogo 6.3 platform. The first one is a very basic model of tribes roaming on the landscape and foraging. You may call it a Paleolithic…
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This is, obviously, just a draft model. I’ve pretty much guessed the possible formulas that could connect the variables. A lot more work is needed to get the model right: finding what data is available, working around any holes in the data, cleaning up the equations, and calibrating the model. Some of the equations are…
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This is a diagram of variable relationships for a basic model that I think could run as a standalone, for demonstration purposes. I tried to keep the number of variables as small as possible, while retaining all the features that I think should be there. Small models are easier to understand and troubleshoot, therefore more…
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How long is a piece of string? There are tally marks and hand prints in caves that prove that our ancestors lived in tribes and were counting something that must have been useful for the tribe to count. That looks like some mental model of the tribe to me. Models rely heavily on assumptions, are…
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Typically, anything that attempts to sound even slightly scientific is supposed to have something at the end with all the footnotes and citations to show you’ve done your homework, and also a list of further questions, caveats and limitations. Which is why people who call themselves social theorists or social scientists can be safely ignored,…
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There are a lot of fragile links in the world waiting to break. Supply chains generally assume reliable transport, good communications and frictionless payments. Measures to improve efficiency in industry can reduce the resilience of industry if they mean that there are no stocks of essential inputs. Also, if industry relies too much on the…
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Now that the model has been built up as far as I can make it, let’s destroy it. The Limits to Growth was attacked so mercilessly that it was never refined much, only tweaked a little. Since I reckon my credibility hovers around the zero point, I estimate I don’t even deserve somebody taking the…
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In most contexts, violent crime and war appear very different. However, from a historical perspective, they appear as two ends of the same spectrum, distinguishable by scale but otherwise of the same nature. An increase in violent crime in a country is a good predictor of an increase in likelihood of civil war. In the…
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And now for some speculation in some very slippery territory… Most of the rest of this book contains thoughts that I’ve had for a long time, but this chapter has, so to speak, “written itself”. By this I mean that I didn’t bother thinking about these subjects until fairly recently (the last three years or…